Announcing Forecaster Rewards
UPDATED June 26, 2025: Results table corrected due to calculation error where the rewards script incorrectly processed percent profit values as decimals (e.g., 790% read as 7.9 instead of 790), significantly underweighting the percentage profit component. Rankings and reward distributions have been adjusted accordingly on the table below. The methodology and weighting (25% nominal / 75% percentage) remains unchanged as originally announced. Original Twitter announcement reflects outdated results.
Thank you again to everyone who participated in in our Futarchy Grants Contest, which officially wrapped up at the end of Optimism Governance Season 7 on June 12 with the play money markets closing. As announced in February prior to the experiment, “At the end of Season 7 (June 2025), top forecasters will be eligible for rewards, based on the accuracy of their predictions.”
We are happy to announce the following forecaster reward distribution:
First place: 3K OP
Second place: 2K OP
Third place: 1K OP
4-30th place: 4K OP distributed based on prediction accuracy (combination of profit % and nominal profit)
These reward amounts are not indicative of rewards in future iterations.
| Final Ranking | Address | Nominal Profit | % Profit | Final Reward (OP) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | skydao.eth | 395.34 | 790.67% | 3,000.00 |
| 2 | 0x87b7f62ce23a8687eaf0e2c457ad0c22ca3554bf | 102.11 | 204.22% | 2,000.00 |
| 3 | beefybadger.eth | 86.37 | 172.74% | 1,000.00 |
| 4 | 0xe422d6c46a69e989ba6468ccd0435cb0c5c243e3 | 263.68 | 75.34% | 241.48 |
| 5 | galechus.eth | 61.80 | 123.59% | 213.31 |
| 6 | alexsotodigital.eth | 106.37 | 106.37% | 209.81 |
| 7 | launamu.eth | 242.30 | 53.85% | 199.15 |
| 8 | pgov.eth | 155.24 | 77.62% | 191.38 |
| 9 | brichis.eth | 223.78 | 49.73% | 183.92 |
| 10 | pumbi.eth | 91.16 | 91.16% | 179.81 |
| 11 | graven.eth | 51.94 | 103.87% | 179.27 |
| 12 | james.eth | 124.47 | 71.13% | 166.61 |
| 13 | mubaris.eth | 47.26 | 94.53% | 163.15 |
| 14 | 0x3750b281e14b0fcd4880399210ce03a7f570fbd7 | 47.04 | 94.09% | 162.39 |
| 15 | 0x8bb5bd528c067708a206cac909f13522d9390da0 | 45.11 | 90.22% | 155.71 |
| 16 | kapanv.eth | 41.77 | 83.55% | 144.20 |
| 17 | trsantos.eth | 38.60 | 77.19% | 133.23 |
| 18 | 0xfd1af514b8b2bf00d1999497668bff26ccdf4c8a | 37.88 | 75.76% | 130.76 |
| 19 | 0x5de5f5fea5af07d799a9eb41f436cdf79ccfa133 | 37.07 | 74.14% | 127.96 |
| 20 | 0x5bbdab0419f4a7811e02a0d3bdfadf3b5dbdeab0 | 35.43 | 70.85% | 122.28 |
| 21 | zenbit.eth | 34.69 | 69.39% | 119.76 |
| 22 | gr8collector.eth | 34.51 | 69.03% | 119.14 |
| 23 | ailadady.eth | 32.66 | 65.32% | 112.74 |
| 24 | 0xjean.eth | 31.66 | 63.32% | 109.28 |
| 25 | fenya.eth | 31.32 | 62.64% | 108.11 |
| 26 | cryptoleks.eth | 31.01 | 62.01% | 107.03 |
| 27 | 0x79b2562f934cfebaecdd643ed39165863c417b0d | 30.71 | 61.43% | 106.02 |
| 28 | 0x9080f29e6ad496ff50c398afc7326e192973d155 | 30.71 | 61.41% | 105.99 |
| 29 | 0x0936289d6c53b6907001f6f5060084de52edd99b | 30.07 | 60.13% | 103.78 |
| 30 | tekr0x.eth | 30.05 | 60.10% | 103.73 |
Note: Final results were updated on June 26 to correct a technical error in how percentage values were processed by our rewards calculation script. The methodology and weighting (25% nominal / 75% percentage) remains unchanged as originally announced.
We will be in touch with recipients via email to kick off the KYC and rewards delivery process.
To define prediction accuracy and determine these rankings, we computed a composite score called Combined Profit, which incorporates both nominal profit and percent profit. We weighted percent profit at 75% and nominal profit at 25% to reflect a balance between forecasting efficiency and overall impact on price.
This weighting was chosen to mitigate the outsized influence of participants who held more play tokens and thus had greater profit potential, while still acknowledging that scale carries some value. To recap, forecasters with select OP gov attestations were eligible for higher baseline amounts of play tokens, in an effort to proxy for higher conviction in a play money setting with no real money deposits to quantify conviction and expertise.
Percent profit serves as a proxy for accuracy relative to resources used, making it especially relevant in our context, where many high-performing forecasters had no access to OP attestations and thus couldn’t increase their play token allocation. Thus, Combined Profit is calculated as follows:
Combined Profit_i = 0.25(Nominal Profit_i) + 0.75(Percent Profit_i)
If someone is ranked first, second, or third by Overall Profit, they receive a fixed amount of 3K, 2K, 1K OP respectively. For 4th-30th ranked forecasters, we calculate reward share from the remaining pool of 4K OP based on Overall Profit:
Reward Share_i = (Combined Profit_i / Total Combined Profit_N) * 4000
Note that in the Final Rewards calculations, we used the final on-chain data directly from Butter. Note that the Leaderboard PnL was indicative but we used Butter’s final on-chain data for final reward amounts. Final PnL calculations apply on-chain CFM contract rules, which are based on rewarding participants based on the final Superchain TVL Increase values, observed on June 12th and reported via an oracle on-chain. Earlier leaderboard calculations from Butter’s script might have varied slightly due to TVL values being based on approximations. The Leaderboard has been updated to reflect the final on-chain values for Nominal Profit and % Profit.
& For everyone who participated: Please take 5 mins to complete this forecaster experience survey and help us improve future versions. Of course, don’t hesitate to share your thoughts on this experience including the rewards calculation and as always, stay optimistic! 
