Are you asking how we know how much in co-incentives Curve is likely to match for incentivized pools?
If so, we really don’t. Curve has not committed to any sort of targets that I know of (as we have) and the overwhelming majority Curve’s emissions will continue to go to mainnet for the foreseeable future. It will take time before there is hard data on the effectiveness of using bribing veCRV voters with non-main net asset like $OP and we get a clear picture on their rate of their coincentivization.
That said, Optimism’s research into the effectiveness of incentive programs to date did document the current rate of CRV emissions flowing to Optimism, which is what we used for our projection.
To put this in perspective, that is $90,000 in co-incentives from Curve over a period where Velodrome distributed $2,900,000. That means we are pumping 32x the stimulus into the Optimism economy that Curve is while asking for a grant merely 8x the size of theirs.
We’ve addressed this ad naseum at this point, both in the proposal and in our responses. Please refer to those answers here, here, here, and here.
If you want to dispute any particular arguments, please quote them and provide data or evidence to support your assertion.
To be clear, Uniswap received their grant before us. I think the pace at which they’ve moved to put it to use makes it clear how much of a priority Optimism currently is for them.
As for if our metrics would be the same? It’s impossible to know.
Even before the grant, we had plenty of data indicating we were the most capital efficient DEX on Optimism and were beginning to attract new partners so it’s possible we would still be in a strong position. However, it would’ve made it far more expensive for the 15+ new protocols we’ve onboarded who have not received grants from the governance to onboard their users, liquidity, and activity to Optimism.
In other words, any loss of Velodrome’s would’ve also been a loss for the growth of the ecosystem and that would’ve knock on effects that are difficulty to extrapolate.
I do not really understand your words here, but I will reiterate that every DEX that comes back to Optimism demonstrating a 2x-3x return on investment in terms of the growth multiple they’ve provided should be strongly considered for an extension of their incentive programs.
The only thing a “wait and see” approach will give you is slowing growth to the detriment of the ecosystem and a messy comparative data set on DEX incentives.